The trend towards a weakening of the US currency continued on Tuesday, December 15. Thus, the DXY index lost 0.28 percent to settle at 90.47 points, updating the minimum for the last two and a half years, and the EUR/USD pair showed a near-zero (0.12%) improvement to conclude at $1.2158 on the day, keeping close to the maximum values since April 2018.
A reasonably high risk appetite in global markets remains a key factor leading to the weakening of the dollar in the expectation of success in the mass vaccination of the population of the largest countries. At the same time, the certification of the vaccine developed by Moderna against COVID-19 is anticipated by the end of this week. So the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) stated Tuesday that this drug does not have significant side effects, along with its high efficacy. On Thursday, the FDA panel will meet to make a final statement on the vaccine.
Moreover the bullish mood of market investors is related to expectations of the imminent acceptance in the United States of a new package of stimulus measures. After the leader of the Republican majority in Congress, Mitch McConnell, said that Congress will not end the year without agreeing on this bill, expectations for a positive outcome of the talks between Republicans and Democrats increased.
In terms of macroeconomic statistics, industrial output data were published on the day. In November, the indicator increased by 0.4% for m/m compared to 0.9% for m/m earlier, beating the consensus estimate of +0.3%. The release of December data on the business optimism index of the IBD/TIPP, showed that the indicator decreased by 1 percentage point to 49 points, the lowest value in the last three months.
A press conference and the announcement of the Fed’s key rates at the conclusion of the two-day meeting will be the main event on Wednesday. It is likely that the Federal Reserve will keep the existing monetary policy parameters unchanged, but the overall evaluation of the current condition of the US economy by the regulator, its future prospects, and the need for additional monetary stimulus measures will be of interest.